A consulting firm submitted a bid for a large research project. The firm’s management initially felt they had a 50-50 chance of getting the project. However, the agency to which the bid was submitted subsequently requested additional information on the bid. Past experience indicates that for 77% of the successful bids and 43% of the unsuccessful bids the agency requested additional information.
What is the prior probability of the bid being successful (that is, prior to the request for additional information) (to 1 decimal)?
What is the conditional probability of a request for additional information given that the bid will ultimately be successful (to 2 decimals)?
Compute the posterior probability that the bid will be successful given a request for additional information (to 2 decimals).